Bengal Assembly Election: 2021

 Bengal Assembly Election in 2021 and Left’s Role

 

Election for Bengal Assembly (Vidhan Sabha, VS) is due in June, 2021. Another very important state election, in India, after 2019 Parliament election (Lok Sabha, LS). There had been many elections in between, like Bihar and others (https://www.elections.in/upcoming-elections-in-india.html), but it has its own importance. If for nothing else, to gauze the mood of Bengal intellectuals, the working class, peasants (Ongoing Farmers Protests, https://www.youthkiawaaz.com/2021/01/peoples-representatives-and-revolutionary-situation/) after the fall of Left regime, a decade back and its repercussion, effects on the national level.

Bengal has a very rich intellectual base and a rich progressive and revolutionary historical past, even before the independence, with international famed writers (Rabindranath Tagore, Sarat Chandra Chattopadhyay, etc.), freedom fighters (Hundreds of them, who sacrificed for the cause), revolts starting from Naxalbari, which formed a ‘brand’ of Communist movement in India, in name of Naxalism, scientists, cine actors, and ideologues, etc. that have influenced ideologically and even shook the country, from time to time.

The people of Bengal (United, which included East Pakistan and now Bangladesh) have led India against imperialist power as well as against feudalism and other forms of injustice and discrimination. This time the “game” is different and it is to be seen, whether this bastion falls to fascism or not, in name of religion, national chauvinism, fake and poisonous personality cult. If Bengal stands against the sweeping communal forces (behind which is the economic crisis and outright plunder by the top capitalists), what will be the form?

The data on previous election will help us form a picture of the forthcoming election, though it has to be remembered that these data are neither in a series (progressive or geometrical) nor could forecast the new Bengal Assembly, though we will be having many (some unsubstantiated and fake ones to propagate in favor of the powerful and moneyed political parties) pre-poll surveys. These data are very influential on TV hosted “debates” in primetimes, which, incidentally, is no better than fish market and where, never ever, any fruitful outcome comes. Have a look:

BJP LS Election 2014 in Bengal polled           17.02%            

Vidhan Sabha (VS) Election   2016                 10.16%          

BJP LS 2019                                                        40.7%            TMC 43%

This jump of vote percentage by BJP from 2014 to 2019 in Parliament Election is impressive, but another observation is that the Parliamentary Elections are not in synch with the State Assembly Election, barring few exceptions. Let us see, with the exception first, followed by others in recent times for BJP/NDA.

Tripura:         LS 2014       5.7%           VS 43% (Exception case)

Bihar:             LS 2019       53.25%      VS (2020) 37%

Jharkhand     LS 2019       55%             VS (2019) 33%

Haryana         LS 2019      56%              VS (2019) 38%

So not to go much into the past data, we only see here that these data analysis is more of an entertainment, rather to see them as a trend for the people’s mood, which incidentally shifts like sea waves, albeit with uncertain and irregular waves. The mood swing is related to the mass commotion, some idea gripping them on some issue (Remember Nirbhaya Rape Episode and Balakot incident?). They are transient, local, occasionally national, and even irrational.

Rise of TMC, Destruction of Left: Left Front in Bengal consists CPI, CPI(M), AIFB, RSP, RCPI, Bolshevik Party of India, Marxist Forward Block and Workers Party of India. This front was formed in 1977, few joined later and even quit. Since its formation, it ruled Bengal till 2011. In 1977 the Front got 46% of the polled votes and came to power. In 1982 it rose up to 53% of the votes.

In 2014 Parliament Election the Left was reduced to 29.9% and in 2016 Assembly Election it was reduced to 26%, and in 2019 Parliament Election the figure stood at 8%! The fall in Left’s popularity has been consistent.

(Many data are taken from the EC sites and even from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left_Front_(West_Bengal)#cite_note-s2016-91)

The reason for this decimation of Left, led by the CPI(M), was mass exodus of its cadres as well as lower and middle level leaders. The voters and its sympathizers opted BJP in hope of better days, who were lured by BJP’s rhetoric and jingoism. They also hoped to defeat authoritarian Mamata Banerjee and her party “goons” and their atrocities and come back to “good” old days! BJP was seen a savior against TMC violence!

One of the reasons and important one of downfall of the Left was its inability to educate the workers and the oppressed people, and its own deviation from class struggle, which meant ground work among the masses, injecting ideology in economic demands and struggle. The gap between the top leaders and the members of the Left Front individual parties increased not only ideologically, organizationally but even in social status. The gap between the party and the masses was unbridgeable. This resembles like that of any Right-Wing political parties, based on the concept of bourgeois state (A mini ‘state’ structure in the party, call it bureaucracy or “Statism”.).

There was a news on electronic media on 13 Jan, 2021. TMC asked Left and Congress to help it in fighting against BJP and its communal policies (https://www.firstpost.com/india/west-bengal-parties-mull-anti-bjp-alliance-tmc-asks-cpm-congress-to-back-mamata-inc-says-join-forces-with-us-9199281.html). This can be seen as fear in TMC leaders, though the TMC so far has not suffered any appreciable loss in its vote shares, despite increase in that of BJP. But the way BJP is leading the election campaign, the apprehension is natural. It may lead through selected riots, even though not on mass scale, use of ED, CBI, IT Dept to intimidate the candidates and force them to quit TMC. The impartiality of EC is further eroded in Bihar Assembly Election, where the declared winning candidates were declared as lost later (https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/bihar-election-results-as-bjp-led-nda-takes-clear-lead-twitterati-allege-evm-tampering/story/421577.html). The claims can not be substantiated but the behavior of EC is unbecoming of its status as an independent constitutional institution.

The above facts, data and reasoning leads to an old jargon, “Lesser Evil”, which is universal and props up during elections, like selection between Democrats and Republicans in the USA and between the Labor and the Tories in UK. There is another syndrome “Who/Where is the Alternative?” or more assertive TINA (There Is No Alternative). This is the outcome of Parliamentarian Politics or ‘Election to Election’ Politics, where the ground work or work among the proletarian class is minimum or does not exist. Incidentally, RSS/BJP are doing the ground works (including underground violent, supported by the state) to capture the power without break, which includes mass rallies, meetings, protests, etc. (Cow vigilante groups, Anti Romeo Squads, Bajrang Dal, and many more.). This was not a practice followed by RSS, Jan Sangh (earlier political wing of RSS), BJP and other affiliated RSS family members earlier, but started after 1975-77 JP movement and became very prominent after 2012-13 Anna movement.

Conclusion: There cannot be any final conclusion of any ongoing process, where we analyze pre-poll conditions and even later as ‘lessons learnt’. However, there are few outcomes of the above research, important ones, firstly, the Left and the Revolutionary forces have erred, deviated and even dumped their revolutionary political line and practices. They cannot be ‘advised’ on their theory and practices, as they even shy in self-criticism publicly, forget about accepting others’ evaluation.

Secondly, once these revolutionary forces have accepted the Parliamentarian path for the desired changes (they call it revolution to supersede capitalism with socialism!!), winning the election becomes (and has become since long) the most important task (see for analogy, the downfall of AAP, after they started selecting their candidates on winnability factor.). Why shy away from TMC, which is not much different than Congress (its mother organization) ideologically?